Die dood van aandele?

April 25th, 2009

Agtien maande gelede was beleggers eufories oor die prestasie van aandelebeleggings. Dat daar risiko aan verbonde kan wees of dat die gevaar bestaan dat die aandele kan daal, het toe geensins ‘n rol by besluitneming gespeel nie. Die situasie het mens amper aan aasvoëls by ‘n karkas laat dink.

 

Die res is, soos hulle sê, geskiedenis. Aandele het gesneuwel – oftewel hulle word behandel soos familielede wat skandes gemaak het en oor wie daar liewer nie gepraat word nie.

 

Die beleggingsomgewing het inderdaad wesenlik verander. Groot maatskappye met ‘n bewese opbrengsgeskiedenis van meer as honderd jaar bestaan skielik nie meer nie. Ander wat oorleef het, se markkapitalisasie het kommerwekkend gekrimp.

 

Beleggers is dus met goeie rede bevrees. Min mense het al ‘n soortgelyke ekonomiese krisis beleef. Die reddingsboeie wat deur regerings uitgegooi is om die ekonomie te stabiliseer het tot dusver min invloed gehad.

 

Ons eie ekonomie begin nou eers werklik die koue winde van verandering voel, terwyl kenners maan dat die ergste nog aan die kom is.

 

Is aandele dus waarlik dood … of is hulle nie? Alhoewel geen deurwinterde aasvoël ‘n vars karkas met rus sal laat nie, is die moontlikheid tog daar dat beleggers dalk die grootste beleggingsgeleentheid ooit deur hul vingers kan laat glip.

 

Alhoewel niemand waarskynlik die draaipunt van die beermark reg kan voorspel nie, is menige fondsbestuurder dit eens dat daar vele maatskappye daar buite is wat die storms suksesvol sal oorleef. Die mark het die geneigdheid om te draai terwyl die nuus op die ekonomiese front steeds ‘n baie donker prentjie skilder.

 

Kan dit wees dat beleggers weer onkant gevang gaan word?

 

Indien jy jonk is of dalk onlangs met ‘n spaarpoging begin het, kan jy vir jou ‘n stewige fondasie vir die toekoms lê deur in ‘n gefokusde aandelebeleggingsstrategie te belê. En moenie paniekerig word as daar in die toekoms weer swaar ekonomiese tye is nie. Onthou markte beweeg altyd in siklusse en deur meer te belê wanneer die markte daal, kan jy jou totale opbrengs oor tyd baie verbeter.

 

Indien jy reeds afgetree is en inkomste uit jou portefeulje moet onttrek, moet jy diversifiseer om negatiewe siklusse effektief teen te werk. Maak seker dat jy ‘n getoetste beleggingsstrategie het, en hou daarby oor die lang termyn.

 

Indien die top sake-entrepreneurs vir die langer termyn nie iets beter met hulle kapitaal kan doen as om dit in ‘n veilige bankbelegging te plaas nie, dan is aandele inderdaad dood.

 

Aandele is dood, lank lewe aandele!

Risk-free investment?

April 2nd, 2009

In these unprecedented volatile and uncertain financial times we often hear people say that they wished that they had rather invested in a risk-free investment, often alluding to money market funds as being risk free. The sad news is that “….there is no risk-free[1] investment.”

If we forget about the equity market for a minute and focus our attention on money market funds, I will look at the risks money market funds are exposed to:

  1. Negative real interest rates
  2. Credit risk
  3. Liquidity risk

Negative real interest rates

This equates to the decline of purchasing power. If the rate of inflation exceeds after–tax interest rates, then the spending power of your capital in a money market fund will decline over time. This will happen even if you choose to reinvest your after-tax income. You might well say that you prefer to go backwards slowly and predictably rather than very abruptly as happened to equity markets in 2008. However, most investors probably do not want their capital to go backwards indefinitely.

When in trouble to meet their obligations, Governments around the globe might resort to printing money indiscriminately or engineer negative real interest rates. We would then end up being like Zimbabwe. If you had invested your money in an Zimbabwean money market you still would have had all your capital intact but unfortunately it would be worthless in terms of purchasing power.

Credit risk

Money markets invest in debt instruments or ‘IOUs’ which oblige the issuer of the IOU to repay a fixed money amount on a specified date within the next year. If the issuer were to go ‘bankrupt’ and default (in other words not being able to pay the full amount when it is due) the fund and the investors would bear a loss.

One way money market funds try to address credit risk is to invest the fund in a diversified portfolio of debt instruments issued by a range of issuers. This is done so that any potential losses arising from the default of any one issuer will be constrained to a limited portion of the fund’s portfolio.

The benefits of diversification will be tempered if the default of one issuer sets off further defaults by other issuers in a domino-effect crisis, as we saw happened globally in 2008. In the event of a systemic crisis like this, governments around the world have typically stepped in to shore up and stabilise the financial system.

Liquidity risk

Extreme circumstances can heighten liquidity risks. In most circumstances investors in money market funds can give one day’s notice of their intent to withdraw all their funds. All capital invested in a money market fund is not invested on a call deposit as the managers think it is unlikely that all the fund investors would suddenly want to withdraw all their funds on the same day.

By investing in longer dated paper fund managers can improve the yield earned by the fund and the investors.

Very importantly; in extreme circumstances (such as were experienced in the US money markets in 2008), withdrawals can be unexpectedly large, and this may force money market fund managers to sell its longer dated paper in order to fund the withdrawals. If this paper is sold at a loss (as there may be other money market funds all trying to sell the same paper at the same time), then that loss will be borne by the money market fund and the investors.


[1] Allan Gray’s December monthly news letter

Ultima Nuus Spesiale Uitgawe

February 6th, 2009

Kliek hier om die nuus brief af te laai (PDF formaat).

Ultima News Special Edition

February 6th, 2009

Please click here to download the newsletter (PDF format).

Draw up a financial plan

January 7th, 2009
Draw up a financial plan to build the lifestyle you want
By Neesa Moodley-isaacs

A financial plan is a blueprint that defines how you will achieve your financial and lifestyle objectives. At the acsis/Personal Finance Financial Planning Club’s series of meetings this month, Gerrit Viljoen, the director of Ultima Financial Planners in Pretoria, talked about what you need to consider when drawing up a financial plan.

When you want to go on holiday, you start preparing and planning months beforehand to make sure that your holiday will go smoothly. And yet many people fail to put a similar amount of effort into preparing a financial plan, Gerrit Viljoen says.

Although gambling, for example, may seem like an exciting way of taking care of your financial needs, you stand to lose everything. Financial planning, on the other hand, can be very boring, but the result will be your financial security, Viljoen says.

Applying the fundamental principles of financial planning over the long term will enable you to achieve your lifestyle objectives.

Although there are many good financial planners, Viljoen says there are just as many who are merely product pedlars.

“If your financial planner is punting several products instead of looking at your needs, you could be in trouble,” he says.

Viljoen says you can try to draw up a financial plan on your own, as long as you know what constitutes a financial plan.

“Your policy schedule or statement is not a financial plan. A statement reflects your policies, assets and investments, but it is not a financial plan,” he says.

To develop a sound financial plan, you need to draw up a budget and identify your financial and lifestyle objectives.

“You may want to buy lots of property while you are young and then retire at 50 to travel the world. Or you may want to open your own business and then retire at 60 to a cottage in Mauritius. Your financial plan needs to be tailor-made to your needs and objectives,” Viljoen says.

When you are developing a framework for your financial plan, you need to recognise the fact that you will always live according to your value system.

“You have to get your values and your life in order before you can get your finances on track,” he says.

Your values are the things that define you or that are most important to you - for example, possessions, status, relationships or the freedom to travel the world.
Know thyself
Viljoen says a good way to figure out what you value is to imagine yourself in the following scenarios:

  • You are financially secure - you have enough money to take care of your needs now and in the future. How would you live your life and what would you do with your money? What changes would you make to the way you are living now?
  • Your doctor tells you that you have five to 10 years left to live. The good news is that you won’t feel sick. The bad news is that you may die at any time during that period. What would you do in the time you have left? What, if any, changes would you make to your lifestyle?
  • Your doctor tells you that you have only one day left to live. Take note of your feelings as you suddenly come face to face with your mortality. Ask yourself which of your dreams will be left unfulfilled, what you wish you had done and which projects you wish you had completed.

    Your answers to these questions will give you the best idea of what you really value, Viljoen says.

    Know your Assets
    You need to identify what type of assets you have so that you know how you can build your wealth, Viljoen says. You can have four different types of assets:

  • Business assets, which can include an investment property, your business or anything that provides you with an income.
  • Lifetime assets or investments, which can include your retirement savings. You need to build up these assets. Conservative lifetime assets include equities, bonds and cash.
  • Lifestyle assets, which can include an expensive car or a Persian carpet.
  • Surplus assets, which are any other assets you have after you have accounted for the other three categories of assets.

    Identifying your assets will enable you to determine whether or not you are saving enough and whether or not your business assets are bringing in sufficient income so that you can afford your lifestyle assets and maintain your standard of living, Viljoen says.

    It is crucial that you re-examine your financial plan as you move through different stages of your life, he says. For example, when you are a young adult and have few investments, you will need more life cover. However, as you grow older and your investments increase in value, your need for life cover decreases.

    COMMON MISTAKES YOU SHOULD AVOID
    Gerrit Viljoen used the following analogies to highlight some of the common mistakes you should avoid when planning your finances.

    1. Relying on one person
    If you decided to build your dream house, you would have a good idea of what you wanted your home to look like.

    If you employed an architect and he or she simply presented you with a plan that he or she had drawn up previously, you would not hesitate to tell the architect that the plan does not match your vision of how you want your house to look.

    “It doesn’t make sense that in exactly the same scenario in the financial planning arena you are likely to accept a plan given to you by a financial adviser and walk away with something you did not want in the first place,” Viljoen says.

    An architect should draft a plan or blueprint that will enable the builder to construct the house you want. The
    builder may use sub-contractors to do, for example, the painting and tiling.

    You would employ a quantity surveyor to work out the cost of the construction and a civil engineer to supervise the work.

    You would employ a landscape architect to create the perfect garden and an interior decorator to ensure that your home is tastefully decorated.

    Viljoen says you would be wary of a builder who claimed that he or she could do everything. After all, a builder cannot be expert in everything, and you may end up with shoddy or poor quality workmanship in your home.

    Similarly, Viljoen says, when it comes to planning your finances, you should use:

  • A financial planner to develop your financial plan;
  • An insurance agent to adjust your life assurance as your lifestyle changes (but this does not mean constantly churning policies);
  • A lawyer if you are setting up your own business;
  • A trust specialist if you want to establish a trust; and
  • An asset manager to help you choose the investments that will provide the returns you require.

    You should be wary of a financial planner who tells you that he or she can perform all of the above functions, Viljoen says.

    2. Chopping and changing
    You plan to build a home when you retire at the age of 60. At 30, you decide to prepare for this by stockpiling bricks and tiles.

    After five years, a bricklayer tells you that you have stockpiled the incorrect type of bricks and that you need to throw out all of them and buy new bricks from him.

    At the age of 40, you decide that the tiles you have stockpiled are outdated, so you throw out all of them
    and buy new tiles.

    “Most people would laugh at the above scenario and would never throw away bricks or tiles that they have already spent money on.

    “However, the same people are quite willing to cancel their policies or investments after speaking to a different financial adviser. Later on, they become disgruntled when their policies or investments do not yield the returns they were hoping for,” Viljoen says.

    WHAT YOU NEED TO FACTOR INTO YOUR PLAN
    A financial plan has several components, Gerrit Viljoen says. They include estate planning, risk planning and investment or retirement planning.

  • Estate planning. You must have a signed will that, in terms of the law, can be executed, he says. Your estate should be able to settle your outstanding debts when you die. You must also ensure there will be sufficient funds in your estate to settle the costs of winding up your estate – for example, executor’s fees, estate duty and capital gains tax.
  • Risk planning. You need to work out how much money your dependants will need to maintain their standard of living when you die, Viljoen says.

    “You cannot thumbsuck a number when you are trying to determine the needs of your family. You actually have to sit down and plan down to the last cent,” he says.

    Ideally, there should be a lump sum in your estate to eliminate your debt, replace the family car and pay for your children’s education, Viljoen says.

    “If you look at your assets and there is still a shortfall in the amount your family requires when you die, insurance can be a good way to cover that shortfall,” he says.

    You must include any employee benefits, such as your group life assurance, when you calculate your family’s financial needs, because these benefits can make a big difference to the amount you require, Viljoen says.

    “Sometimes it can work out cheaper to increase your employee benefits at your own cost than to buy a new life policy,” he says.

  • Investment or retirement planning. Your first step must be to determine your investment goal. You should invest for the long term and stick to your strategy without being swayed by short-term market movements, Viljoen says.

    “Use specialists so that you target the correct investments for the returns you require,” Viljoen says.

    An insurance agent or a financial planner cannot choose investment products for you, as this is not their area of expertise.

    “They don’t have the time or the knowledge to give you the best advice in this regard. A good financial planner will refer you to or work with an asset manager to make sure that you make the best possible investments for your needs,” he says.

    Viljoen says many people incorrectly think they need a financial plan only until retirement, at which stage they can rely on their retirement funds.

    “Your retirement fund trustees are not drawing up a financial plan for your retirement. They are merely managing your money until your retirement. At that point, they hand the money to you, and whether or not it is enough for your retirement is not their concern. So it is your responsibility to plan beyond your retirement date,” he says.

    You will require increasing returns in retirement to maintain your lifestyle, so your financial plan should last until the day you die.

    Viljoen says it is absolutely crucial that you start saving or planning early for your retirement. The longer you elay saving or planning, the more you will have to put away.

    For example, he says, if you will require savings of R30 million when you retire at 65 and you start saving at the
    age of 25, you will need to put away R2 493 a month. However, if you only start saving at 30, you will have to put away R4 560 a month. If you delay saving until you are 45, you will need to save R29 648 a month to have
    R30 million at retirement.

    Published on the web by Personal Finance on November 30, 2008.


    © Personal Finance 2008. All rights reserved.
  • Ultima in a nutshell

    December 19th, 2008

    2008 - what a year it has been! We saw what is arguably the most volatile market condition experienced by investors during the past 50 years. Please carefully read the insert accompanying the latest InContext report. This insert was written by Andrew Bradley, CEO of acsis.

     

    Two myths about the financial services arena exist among the larger public. The first one is that people’s randomly chosen pension benefits will be sufficient provision for their retirement, and the second one is the perception that financial advisors are only interested in hard selling.

     

    The first myth is dispelled by statistical facts showing that more than 90% of people relying only on their employer benefits when reaching retirement have insufficient provision. At Ultima, we also want to change the perception about financial advisors through healthy client relationships and by focussing on clients’ real, long-term needs and goals using a tested, robust advice and decision making process.

     

    We are able to assist clients by forming strategic alliances with world-class companies at the forefront of innovation and technology and by doing research on financial markets, economies and investment. Our planners are well-skilled and diligent when it comes to assisting clients in making well-informed decisions and implementing them cost-effectively. Our aim is giving you lifelong peace of mind!

     

    We would like to use this opportunity to reflect on your relationship with Ultima within the broader financial planning community. Although our founding members have been practicing for much longer, Ultima was formed in 2000. The aim was to be a unique, independent financial planning service provider that helps clients to achieve their financial goals and commitments reliably over the agreed time period. As the investment environment grew more and more complex, we identified the need for a partner who would research local and international investment markets and who would provide us with feedback on the most appropriate Fund Managers with regard to achieving the desired outcome for our clients. After research done in 1999, we decided to appoint the independent financial planning company, acsis, as our research and implementation strategic partner. Although we have this partnership with acsis, we remain independent as we do not hold shares in acsis nor do they hold shares in our company.

     

    It is important to note that we regularly evaluate the service acsis provides us in order to make sure it’s the most appropriate and cost-effective. Since their appearance in 1999, many local companies have tried to emulate what they offer and we evaluate these offerings on an ongoing basis. To date we have not found any one company that can match their local and international research capability or their robust framework and processes in putting together the various asset allocation models when targeting a specific return.

     

    The other area in which we believe it necessary to give clients peace of mind is the safety of their money. Every day some or other new scam hits the headlines, robbing people and more often than not, pensioners, of their hard-earned capital. Although it’s hard for most people to identify a scam, we believe that our clients’ money is safe only by using the safest vehicles, namely Collective Investments, Endowment and Pension Structures. None of our clients’ money is ever invested in our company or reflected on our balance sheet, but the money is held by independent custodians such as Standard Bank Nominees. As a result we can confidently state that your money is safe with us.

    The continuity of Ultima as a business could also be a concerning factor. What happens to your money if one of the principals dies? Again, in terms of the FAIS Act both principals are also Key Individuals duly approved and registered with the FSB. That means that should one of the Key Individuals die, the business can continue because all the legislative conditions have been satisfied. In January we aim to have five qualified financial planners on board. The presence of this professional team looking after our clients’ every need should provide sufficient peace of mind.

     

    We want to thank you for your ongoing support during the past year despite volatile and trying times. We also want to thank Ultima’s staff for their continued commitment and support of you, our valued client. Without our excellent team it is impossible to offer sustainable service.

    What is the world’s sagest investor doing now?

    October 26th, 2008

    26 October 2008

    I believe we are going through some of the toughest times experienced the past 80 years. Unprecedented volatility is experienced every day on the markets. Unlike previous down markets, this time the whole world is in turmoil. Many of us will definitely feel the urge to jump ship to what we believe is safer asset classes such as bonds and cash. I believe this would not be the correct strategy as the long term prognosis for equities is still good. I came upon a recent article written by Warren Buffett which I think will benefit all of us while we go through these trying times.

    The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

    So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

    Why?

    A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

    Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

    A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

    Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

    You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

    Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

    Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

    I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

    Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

    Why shooting the moon is so difficult

    September 28th, 2008

    If you ever tried to play the computer card game hearts you would no doubt have encountered how difficult it is to get zero score while the other players all bust. You have to be able to know at all times how many cards have already been played and also who still holds what cards. All your opponents would want to dump the queen of spades on you while you would want them to end up with her.

    When considering investments many people also want to shoot the moon or put differently, shoot the lights out! While investment markets are advancing almost all investors seems to be aggressive. This might entail constantly switching to better funds trying to obtain the best possible returns compared to your friends or peers.

    Now we know that markets never go up in a straight line. We had arguably the best of economic times during the past six years. Although danger signs appeared on the horizon, many investors chose to ignore them. Instead of constantly trying to outsmart investment markets by regularly switching investments, a better approach would be to calculate your need or requirement at the time you need your investment to mature. This could be upon retirement or some pre-determined event.

    You then build a diversified portfolio (cash, equities, bonds, gilts and property) that will give you the required return over your pre-determined period. There would then seldom be disappointments along the way because you are constantly monitoring and adjusting your asset allocation, not timing the market. This might not sound exciting at first but as you go along and witness your steady progress you will soon realise the value of such an approach.

    No room for emotions when investing

    March 31st, 2008

    I asked John Kinsley from Prudential Asset Managers whether I could use his article that was published in Money Marketing as I believe it would add value to your investment knowledge.

    John Kinsley
    Besturende direkteur
    Prudential Portfolio Managers (South Africa)


    Active or passive? Value or growth? Equities or bonds, or maybe cash?

    Not only do investors have to grapple with volatile stock markets and endure worrying economic conditions, but in addition they also have to make sense of continuous debates among experts about which are the better approaches to asset management: value or growth, active or passive.

    At Prudential we say that instead of worrying about picking the one asset manager which follows an approach likely to outperform all others, or choosing the one asset class that will do the best, your strategy should centre on appropriate diversification.

    If, in addition, you are able to take emotion out of your approach, you are likely to take investment choices that will help you achieve superior returns over time.

    The ability to make decisions without the influence of emotions is one of the most important skills of a successful asset manager. Often it is this ability that enables investors to diversify appropriately – generally this involves investing your money in an asset class, a region, or a stock that has fallen out of favour with the market.

    Take the Prudential Global High Yield Bond Portfolio as an example. Global bonds underperformed most other asset classes during 2007 with global corporate bonds suffering further as a result of the global credit crunch. The performance of the Prudential portfolio was therefore not very exciting for most of 2007.

    Needless to say investors stayed clear of it. But then during the period from late October 2007 through to February this year the JSE All Share Index endured a roller coaster ride, at one point almost shedding all the earlier gains of 2007. Meanwhile global bonds enjoyed something of ‘a flight to quality’, and this, together with the weakness in the rand, meant that the Prudential Global High Yield Bond Fund of Funds produced a return in rands of over 27% for the first quarter of 2008.

    All our clients’ global balanced portfolios have a portion invested in global bonds. While last year this may have been psychologically difficult to hold on to, it proved an amazing buffer against volatility at the beginning of this year.

    For investors, the biggest learning is that different asset classes and stocks will perform differently when market conditions change. Equally, the various approaches followed by asset managers will produce different results at different times.

    For the past year or two, as valuations have become more concentrated, many value managers struggled against their more growth-orientated competitors. This was a global phenomenon as the performance charts show. But after recent events, value managers are able to plan ahead by scouting for cheap stocks which are likely to be tomorrow’s darlings. And for the past two years or so, the majority of active equity managers found it difficult to beat their benchmarks such as the JSE All Share Index, leaving passive managers gloating.

    But this may all change without much warning. The question is whether you, as the investor, are geared for this change?

    When in January this year the JSE All Share Index reached its lowest point and investors were fleeing equities, at Prudential, we started buying equities and listed property. While this was difficult from an emotional point of view, we were rewarded when the market started turning days later.

    We’ve witnessed a fund of funds manager sell all listed property holdings in January, a day before listed property bounced back by 3%. Not only did this manager materialise a loss for his investors, but he also proved that market timing never pays.

    Investors should not adopt a blanket approach that dictates that going against the herd is best. Instead, you need to develop the discipline and conviction to buy when the market is cheap and to include “out of fashion” opportunities, where necessary, to diversify the portfolio.

    Diversification principles need not only apply to assets. If the debates about value and growth or active and passive are leaving you confused, you could consider diversifying across asset managers as well.

    Remember though, if your investment portfolio was constructed in line with your long-term needs and diversified accordingly, you have nothing to worry about. If not, best you get some advice sooner rather than later.

    Geen plek vir emosies by ‘n belegging nie

    March 31st, 2008

    Ek het vir John Kinsley gevra of ons sy artikel wat in die tydskrif Money Marketing verskyn het kan gebruik aangesien ek glo dat dit vir u insiggewend sal wees.

    John Kinsley
    Besturende direkteur
    Prudential Portfolio Managers (South Africa)


    Aktief of passief? Waarde of groei? Ekwiteite of obligasies, of miskien kontant?

    Beleggers moet nie net met ongestadige effektemarkte worstel en kwellende ekonomiese toestande verduur nie, maar hulle moet ook wys word uit die voortdurende debatte tussen deskundiges oor wat die beter benaderings tot batebestuur is: waarde of groei, aktief of passief.

    By Prudential sê ons dat in plaas van om u te bekommer oor die èèn batebestuurder wat ʼn benadering volg wat waarskynlik al die ander sal oortref, of die èèn bateklas wat die beste sal presteer, te kies, moet u strategie eerder op toepaslike diversifikasie gesentreer wees.

    As u daarbenewens in staat is om emosies van u benadering te verwyder, sal u waarskynlik beleggingskeuses wat u sal help om oor ʼn tydperk voortreflike opbrengste te bereik, maak.

    Die vermoë om besluite sonder die invloed van emosies te neem, is een van die belangrikste vaardighede van ʼn suksevolle batebestuurder. Dikwels is dit dié vermoë wat beleggers in staat stel om toepaslik te diversifiseer – oor die algemeen behels dit om u geld in ʼn bateklas, ʼn streek of ʼn effek wat in die mark in onguns geraak het , te belê.

    Neem die Prudential Global High Yield Bond Portfolio as ʼn voorbeeld. Globale effekte het gedurende 2007 swakker as die meeste ander bateklasse presteer, en globale effekte het verder gely as gevolg van die globale kredietkrisis. Die prestasie van die Prudential portefeulje was derhalwe vir die meeste deel van 2007 nie baie opwindend nie.

    Dit is onnodig om te sê dat beleggers daarvan weggebly het. Maar dan, gedurende die tydperk vanaf laat in Oktober 2007 tot Februarie vanjaar, het die JE-Indeks van Alle Aandele ʼn wipwaentjierit verduur en op ʼn tydstip bykans al die vroeër winste van 2007 ingeboet. Terselfdertyd het globale effekte effens van ʼn ‘vlug na gehalte’ geniet, en dít, tesame met die swakheid van die rand, het beteken dat die Prudential Global High Yield Bond Fund of Funds vir die eerste kwartaal van 2008 ʼn opbrengs in rand van oor 27 persent gelewer het.

    ʼn Gedeelte van al ons kliënte se globale gebalanseerde portefeuljes is in globale effekte belê. Ofskoon dit verlede jaar sielkundig dalk moeilik was om daaraan vas te hou, is dit aan die begin van hierdie jaar as ʼn verbasende buffer teen ongestadigheid bewys.

    Vir beleggers is dit die moeilikste om te leer dat verskillende bateklasse en effekte op verskillende wyses sal presteer wanneer marktoestande verander. Desgelyks sal die onderskeie benaderings wat deur batebestuurders gevolg word op verskillende tydstippe verskillende resultate oplewer.

    Oor die afgelope jaar of twee, soos waardasies gekonsentreerder geword het, het baie waardebestuurders in teenstelling met hul meer groeibepaalde mededingers gesukkel. Dít was ʼn globale verskynsel, soos die prestasiegrafieke toon. Maar ná die laaste gebeurtenisse is waardebestuurders in staat om vooruit te beplan deur goedkoop effekte wat waarskynlik more se skatjies sal word, te verken. En oor die afgelope jaar of wat was dit vir die meeste aktiewe ekwiteitsbestuurders moeilik om hul toonaangewers soos die JE-Indeks van Alle Aandele te klop waaroor passiewe bestuurders hulself verlustig het.

    Maar dit kan sonder te veel waarskuwing verander. Die vraag is of u, as belegger, vir sodanige verandering gereed is.

    Toe die JE-Indeks van Alle Aandele in Januarie vanjaar ‘n laagtepunt bereik het en beleggers uit ekwiteite gevlug het, het ons, by Prudential, begin om ekwiteite en genoteerde eiendom te koop. Ofskoon dit uit ʼn emosionele standpunt moeilik was, is ons beloon toe die mark ʼn paar dae later begin omkeer.

    Ons kan getuig van ʼn fonds-van-fondsebestuurder wat in Januarie, ʼn dag voordat genoteerde eiendom met 3 persent teruggespring het, al genoteerde eiendomsbesit verkoop het. Dié bestuurder het nie net ʼn verlies vir sy beleggers teweeggebring nie, maar hy het ook bewys dat markstydberekening nooit lonend is nie.

    Beleggers behoort nie ʼn alomvattende benadering wat dikteer dat dit die beste is om teen die kudde te hardloop, in te neem nie. In stede daarvan moet u die dissipline en oortuiging ontwikkel om te koop wanneer die mark goedkoop is en om, wanneer dit nodig is, “uit die mode”-geleenthede in te sluit om die portefeulje te diversifiseer.

    Diversifikasiebeginsels hoef nie net op bates van toepassing te wees nie. Indien die debatte oor waarde en groei of aktief en passief u verward laat, kan u oorweeg om ook oor batebestuurders te diversifiseer.

    Onthou egter dat as u portefeulje ooreenkomstig u langtermynbehoeftes opgestel is en dienooreenkomstig gediversifiseer is, hoef u oor niks bekommerd te wees nie. Indien dit egter nie die geval is nie, hoe eerder u ʼn bietjie raad inwin hoe beter.